Training has been going pretty well over the last week, and I’ve been putting tons of time in. I’m at the point where I feel pretty good most of the time—until I immediately get humbled. Kind of like landing a backflip and then missing a high five. It’s hard not to get frustrated, but I have to remind myself that I’ve only been going at this for a little while.
I had my first meet-up with another counter yesterday, which turned out a little different than I thought it would. He’s new too and started in January. He already committed to going to the $3,500 boot camp and has been playing around Phoenix and Tucson. He’s probably got 15 years on me, and he’s a pretty nice guy, if not a little kooky. We talked about counting for a while and dealt each other some shoes at this bar in Phoenix called The Greedy Hamster. His story is that he’s a trucker trying to use blackjack to give him more freedom and grow a bankroll into something more than he could make driving.
The shoes went fine, and we were both off by a few. We were both losing a shit ton of fake money, and I jokingly said, “We’re not going to the casino tonight,” to which he said, “I probably will.” This kind of concerned me because before I said that, his running count was off by 3. This means he could be overbetting or underbetting for the rest of the shoe—it’s basically gambling. Being off by 1 in a 6-deck shoe is bad, but it’s OK. Being off by 1 in a 2-deck shoe is really bad. Then I saw him overbet after losing so many hands in a row in a positive true count. This is gambling to me. It’s pressing. Greedy Hamster.
When you go into a casino, your bet spread is your contract with yourself. Your goal is to play perfectly and move your money with the count according to your bet spread. It’s how you agree with yourself on how much expected value you’re going to create, the risk that you’ll lose your bankroll, and the standard deviation above or below you can expect within an hour. Below is an example of a bet spread I would LOVE to have.
When you increase your max bet, you aren’t quite sure what you’re doing to these values.
This is very nitpicky for practice, but I’ve taken to heart that what you do in practice will come to light in the casino. It’s technically gambling, but it’s real money and should be taken very seriously. Perhaps our vision isn’t quite the same on perfection, but I did agree to meet up again next week.
I’ll stop harping on it, but he told me that he had a bankroll of $16k and is trying to go full time. This isn’t all the money to his name, and he’s getting a job soon, which was very good to hear. This is simply not enough to go pro with. It is, however, a healthy amount that you can grow part-time over a long time. In this venture, you need to travel to keep playing new casinos. $25–$40 an hour EV just isn’t enough to make those miles worth it when you consider the expenses of being on the road.
The meet-up on May 17th is quickly approaching, and I’m very excited. I think I will breach that 99% to 99.8% mark if I keep going. I need that 100% perfection, and I strive for it every day. I’ve been so focused that when I wake up at 6 a.m., I can’t go back to sleep—I start training. I’m generally happy and excited, but more than that, I’m dedicated. Let’s get it done 🙂
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