“If anyone can count cards, why don’t they?”
It must be something left to mathematicians or savants who have much more mental bandwidth than a burnt out college educated man without a plan like me. That’s what I told myself anyway. Besides, even if you could learn to pull it off, is that even allowed? Is it illegal?
I imagined traveling to exotic places, sipping drinks on the house, and living that dream while casinos picked up the tab. Yet, deep down, I knew these fantasies and temptations grew stronger as I approached 30 and faced the reality that I might never crack a six-figure salary.
Living comfortably, having fun, and maybe retiring someday—those thoughts tugged at me. I don’t like the grind of a regular job. Card counting seemed like a way out, a skill worth mastering. It’s not a get-rich-quick scheme, I know that now. It’s about the challenge, the thrill, and the idea of doing something unique with my time.
To kick things off, here’s an overview of the hurdles faced in advantage play.
The Challenges of Advantage Play
I. Travel
The first challenge that comes to mind is travel and time. The landscape of advantage play has evolved significantly over the years. In the early days, if you weren’t playing in Vegas or Atlantic City, you weren’t really playing at all. But now, with the explosion of casinos across the US, you can pack your bags and hit almost every state—and even venture abroad. Here’s a map of all the winnable blackjack games in North America.
The big shift is that you no longer have to limit yourself to Vegas or AC. While the quality of the games can be lower overall, the sheer number of options means each casino’s potential value diminishes. The modern approach to card counting, often called “maximizing,” involves no heavy betting camoflauge—just entering, playing your betting spread as long as possible, then moving on after getting the boot. The real challenge becomes: can you make travel and constant movement work reliably and consistently?
II. Heat
You are not a welcomed guest in a casino if you are trying to play a winning game. Casinos back off players without a verifiable edge, simply because they appear to be winning or unknowingly give signals to surveillance in various ways.
Most of the heat comes from surveillance—about 90%. If you look up when walking into a casino, you’ll see hundreds of cameras across the game floor and the cage. These cameras primarily verify gameplay and payouts, catch criminals or cheaters, and monitor advantage players. Additional heat comes from floor staff and sometimes entitled dealers who often rely on surveillance to track suspicious behavior. Many casino employees lack basic blackjack strategy or card counting skills, but they tend to notice players who change their bets suddenly from $25 to $500.
If you’re identified as an advantage player, they will typically forbid you from playing blackjack or even trespass you from the property. Sometimes, players face difficulties cashing out chips at the cage without showing ID. Keeping your personal information private during your trip is essential, as it reduces the risk of casinos sending flyers or other communications about you to nearby venues.
III. Bankroll Management
“Risk of ruin is the chance that an individual will lose such a substantial amount from an investment or bet that they will be unable to recover from the loss.” I’ve heard stories of players losing their entire bankroll by over betting.
Let’s imagine Joe—he just learned to count cards perfectly and has $5,000 to make it work. He’s confident in his skills and believes that in the long run, he’ll come out ahead. So he decides to run a big spread betting between $25 and $500 because, after all his practice, he’s convinced there’s no way he can lose.
In fact, there’s a 58.24% chance that Joe will go bust at some point and a 41.76% chance he can keep playing indefinitely without hitting zero. Now, if Joe starts with $10,000 instead of $5,000, his risk of ruin decreases.
A one-in-three chance of losing everything is still high. That’s something he should avoid at all costs. Think about whether Joe makes a reasonable wage, maybe his bankroll is replenishable, or perhaps he’s willing to take more risk than others. These are critical questions to ask yourself when designing your bet spreads.
Here’s the bet spread I’m starting with at my best local game.
I am not comfortable taking any risk until my play is tested out and verified by a professional. My bankroll is not easily replinishable.
For many, they will be unable to start with a reasonable bankroll that will yield a good expected value for the risk. Why would you put all the time into travel and dealing with heat if you could make more at McDonalds – with no risk.
IV. Small Edge
Estimating the exact advantage a card counter gains is tricky, but the accepted range is around 1 to 1.5%. By comparison, a perfect basic strategy player has a slight disadvantage at about -0.5%.
This means that, despite flipping a coin heads 51.5% of the time, you’ll still see tails 48.5% of the time. On any given day, you might experience tails 70% of the time. However, over hundreds of thousands of flips, the long-term trend shows heads roughly 51.5% of the time.
Here’s an example of a simulation of my current bet spread over 500 hours
The red line represents the expected value (EV), while the lines above and below show standard deviations. The blue line depicts actual simulated results.
That small edge exposes a card counter to significant variance; even with a 53% advantage on a hand, there’s still a 47% chance of losing that hand. This variance can lead to long streaks of losses or break-even periods, which can tempt many to give up—even if they know that with enough hours, the math will favor them.
This underscores a key challenge: short-term swings can be discouraging, and even a slight advantage doesn’t guarantee consistent wins in the near term. It’s important to stay disciplined and patient, understanding that variance is an inherent part of the game.
Emotional Challenges / Mental Barriers
I. “I’m not smart enough”
It’s often said that anyone can learn to count cards if they have a typical level of focus and the math skills of a 3rd grader. To break that down, here are the skills you’ll need:
Memorization: You need to memorize a few simple charts and understand the statistically best decision to make in every hand of blackjack. For many, this is the first step.
Addition & Subtraction: Assign a value to each card—2-6 is +1, 7-9 is 0, and 10-Ace is -1. Adding these values as you see cards are dealt gives you the “Running count”.
Division: Take your running count and divide it by the number of remaining decks to be played. For example, if your running count is 6 and you estimate that five decks are left (by checking the discard tray), your true count is 1. This helps determine how much to increase your bets according to your spread.
And that’s essentially it. That’s the core of card counting—tracking the high and low cards left in the shoe in a simple, quick way. Of course, there are more complexities involved, but this forms the minimal foundation of a winning approach.
II. Discipline and Emotions
After losing five max bets in a row, can you still make another max bet when the count indicates it? Will you start improvising your bet spread to cover losses? Or will you abandon discipline and try to win it all back against the odds? Money is emotional for most people. Your discipline needs to be stronger than your feelings when you’re playing.
You also need the discipline to understand that when working with such a small edge, your game needs to be perfect. You need to be an expert at what you’re doing, or you risk losing your edge all together. Will you have the drive to gain all of this information mostly on your own?
Expect to lose sessions, and don’t abandon ship. Expect to win sessions, but avoid celebrating excessively. Maintaining discipline is crucial, especially when dealing with such a tiny edge—in this game, your play must be near perfect to keep that advantage.
You need the drive to learn this skill mainly on your own, mastering the necessary techniques and discipline without relying heavily on external guidance.
III. Legality / Morality
Engaging in advantage play inevitably leads to confrontation and adversity. Most of this will come from casino staff, but sometimes it can involve other players or gambling enthusiasts.
In the 1980s, a renowned card counter named Ken Uston took Resorts World to court, arguing they had no right to exclude him from playing. He won that case: link here.
More recently, there have been two $3 million lawsuits against casinos—one for unlawful detainment and another for refusing to cash out—filed in 2021 and 2024. Casinos tend to settle these cases, as they often have in the past.
There is no law against using your knowledge to win at a game. However, you will go to jail if you attempt to cheat using devices or other illegal methods.
Casinos are private property and have the right to remove or trespass you from their premises. As long as you respect their requests, you’re operating within legal boundaries.
It’s entirely fair in my view to avoid confrontation. I don’t enjoy when people approach me to tell me to stop or to claim I’m doing something wrong. I see it as them just doing their job, and I’ll respect that. Nobody likes being treated like a criminal.
I accept and commend skepticism
Be very cautious of anyone who claims they want to gamble solely to make money. Very few who set out to become advantage players succeed in any meaningful way. Many will try to develop a winning betting strategy or rely on online tips, but the reality is far more complex.
The phrase “In the end, the house always wins” and media distortions about card counting aren’t surprising, but they often oversimplify what’s actually involved. The movie 21 is entertaining, but it’s not an accurate representation of real card counting—it’s a niche interest that suffers from exaggerated popularity.
There are notable real-life examples of players who have beaten casinos for substantial amounts and even written books about their experiences: Ken Uston, Tommy Hyland, Ian Anderson, Colin Jones, Stanford Wong, and my personal favorite, Joe748 (active). The Blackjack Hall of Fame, located at Barona Casino in California, has inducted 22 members as of 2025. Every year, there’s an invite-only event called the Blackjack Ball, where attendees vote on new inductees.
If you’re interested in documentary formats, I highly recommend Holy Rollers and Inside the Edge.
My why
After acknowledging all the challenges of card counting, I still see it as something I’d love to pursue. Learning the intricacies of the game is incredibly fun for me, and I’ve enjoyed putting in the hours and developing a deep understanding. Finding a strategy that’s verifiably profitable and grounded in solid math fascinates me.
I thrive on risk – it makes me feel alive. This is part of why I also enjoy hobbies like skiing and mountain biking—doing something unique, adrenaline-filled, and different from the everyday.
There’s a certain allure in claiming something few others are aware of, and I enjoy that cat-and-mouse dynamic with the casinos. They’re actively taking advantage of vulnerable players, and I act as I would a gambler—staying under the radar until they ask me to leave. I’m not a soldier fighting the “evil” casinos. I recognize they’re just doing their job, and I’m doing mine.
I don’t want to work in an office or stick to a 9-to-5 schedule for my whole life. I want the freedom to do things on my own terms, to travel the world, and enjoy different places without being tied down by typical vacation time. I aim to have enough time not to work—balance, autonomy, and adventure.
My current options include earning around $25/hour plus commissions or studying to become an occupational therapy assistant, which pays about $30–$35/hour. These could support a comfortable lifestyle where I can still enjoy myself. But I want more—advantage play might help me reach that next level.
I’m still figuring out my end goal. I’m not entirely sold on turning this into my main income source, especially since I want a zero-risk fallback for now. That’s why I’m planning to continue my studies and pursue a career in occupational therapy. Still, I see advantage play as a long-term possibility—either as a serious pursuit or just a fun hobby that can bring in some extra cash.
At this point in my life, I’m pretty free—no kids, no pets, and a flexible schedule. I have an incredible, supportive girlfriend who’s gradually learning more about this path. Having that support makes the whole journey more doable and exciting.
Conclusion
Card counting isn’t a shortcut to wealth; it’s a test of discipline, patience, and resilience. It’s about pushing your limits, understanding the risks, and doing it responsibly. For me, it’s about chasing a dream—one or two cards at a time—on my own terms. And who knows? Maybe someday, I’ll look back and realize that the real prize was never the money, but the journey itself.