My dad and I had to go up to Camp Verde this weekend to take care of some things around a ranch that we help manage. A few months ago, we had a blast playing some blackjack at the casino across the street, so now that I’ve been training to beat blackjack, I really wanted to go back.
The conditions are great for a casual player — full tables, fun dealers, social crowd. For a card counter like me though, not so much — especially when they’re cutting out, on average, 1.5 decks out of a 6-deck shoe. That puts the game at about $44.68 to $25.28 expected value per hour playing two hands. More per hour with just two people, less with four or more. Good luck finding two hands open when the place is packed though!
We went in on Sunday night and just couldn’t get a seat. The place was slammed and they only had one table running. Even after talking to three managers, they just wouldn’t open a second table. Sounds to me like they hate making money haha. Or maybe they just want to get people on the slots. We bailed and decided to come back Monday.
Monday was a little better. Still busy, but manageable. We sat down and agreed we’d only play for an hour max since we had to drive home afterward. As we were settling in, another player left, and the guy at the table nervously said, “I don’t like playing alone, will one of you join me?”
Not wanting to jump in mid-shoe, I said, “How come? I actually like playing alone — it’s fun!”
He goes, “You have to play differently. For instance, if I get a 15 versus a dealer 5, I have to hit it. When there are other players, I have to stay.”
This blew my mind. I didn’t even know what to say, so I just smiled and said, “Oh wow! That sounds pretty scary,” while keeping my chips safely out of the betting circle to avoid joining a negative shoe.
Seriously though, where do people come up with this stuff? How do they take a random gut feeling and decide it’s law just because it makes sense to them? It’s funny to me. I even went home afterward and checked the stats.
Hitting a hard 15 against a dealer 5 is definitely a no-go. Adding more players doesn’t change basic strategy either, despite what every superstitious gambler at the table will try to tell you.
Finally, a new shoe gets dealt and I’m ready. This was the moment a lot of training had been building toward, and I was excited to see how far I’d come. Since I’m still testing things out, I decided against playing two hands to keep the swings smaller. Here’s the spread I planned to use:
The first shoe was pretty neutral but got up to true 1 a few times. I bet $25 when it did. Lost one $25 bet but won a $50 double, which put me up about $20 to $30 for the shoe.
Counting up to five hands felt solid. I was playing first base too, meaning I had to act first each round. No hiding behind other players’ hands while I was thinking. Once or twice I hesitated and looked down the line, but it didn’t rattle me. In the past, that would have made me abort and freak out, but now my confidence is way higher than it was in my first couple sessions.
Second shoe — boom, the count starts to take off. I went from betting $10 to $50 pretty quickly. Got lucky too — the dealer kept busting, and I hit a $100 double that felt really good. Then the count jumped to true 3 — $75 for me. I put it out there, and BANG blackjack for $112.50.
The dealer definitely noticed me at that point. She shot me a wide-eyed look when I dropped back from $75 to $25 on the next hand. She didn’t say anything though, and honestly, it didn’t bother me either. Even if I did get the tap from the pit boss to leave, this isn’t a shop I’m worried about losing.
By then, they were cutting nearly two decks off the shoe, and we’d hit our 1-hour mark anyway, so we wrapped it up.
Final numbers: bought in for $300, cashed out $492. Pretty awesome considering my EV was probably around $12 to $14 an hour (and probably even less with all the buying in and player changes mid-session).
What I was most proud of wasn’t just the win — it was how I handled everything. I was talking casually with my dad, making eye contact with the pit staff, smiling, saying hello — just looking like another happy customer. I’m learning that it’s tough to completely hide a bet spread, but the better you sell the “clueless happy gambler” act, the more time you buy yourself.
I even acted confused on a soft 18 (Ace and 7) once to sell it a little harder.
All in all, it was a great session for my confidence. I’m going to keep putting in the hours to become a perfect player — not just because of the money, but because, honestly, this shit is pretty fun.
P.S. In case you’re curious about why I talked about deck penetration so much in this post (cutting off parts of the 6-deck shoe), it’s simply the most important aspect of profiting while counting cards.
To compare it to vision, it’s like being able to see 50% versus 80%. They will always cut off some cards at the end of the shoe. But if they cut off more, you see fewer cards and have a much less accurate idea of what’s left to be played.
Here’s the difference in terms of expected value:
1.5 Deck Penetration 6D shoe:
1 Deck Penetration 6D Shoe:
As you can see, the difference between cutting off a deck and a deck and a half is huge. Not to mention halves N-0. Think of N-0 like “how long you have to play before skill beats luck.”
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